See you in Denmark 相会在丹麦

Nov 26th 2009 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

America and China announce targets for carbon emissions to take to Copenhagen

美中两国公布带到哥本哈根的碳排放目标

                               
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IN THE optimistic view, Barack Obama has given a jolt of energy to theCopenhagen climate talks. On Wednesday November 25th the White Houseannounced that he will appear during the first week of negotiationswith a specific American promise: to cut greenhouse gases by 17% from2005 levels by 2020, by 30% by 2025, by 42% by 2030 and by a full 83%by 2050. But cynics can spin the news the other way: Mr Obama was goingto be in Scandinavia anyway, to pick up a Nobel prize that many feel hedid not deserve. The promised target is no different to that alreadypassed by the House of Representatives, and considerably lower thanwhat other rich countries (especially in Europe) have promised. Hisstay will be brief, and comes well before the crunch time near the end.But it will still be a test of whether Mr Obama can turn goodwill intogood works.

   在乐观主义者看来，奥巴马给哥本哈根气候会议注入了一股强大的推动力。本周三，即11月25日，白宫宣布，奥将出席气候会议的头七天并带去美国的具体承诺：2020年温室气体排放量在2005年的基础上减少17％、2025年减排30％、2030年减排42％、2050年最终减排83％。但在好挖苦嘲笑者（犬儒主义者）眼里，这些消息可能变味：奥巴马无论如何都会到丹麦去的，为的是给许多人都认为他不该得的诺贝尔奖挣点面子。其承诺的目标与众议院已经通过的目标没有什么不同，并大大低于其他富国（特别是欧洲）承诺的减排量。他的出席将是短暂的，而且距峰会尾声的关键阶段提前好几天就溜之大吉。但是，这对奥巴马仍然是一个考验：否能把善意变成善举。

Mr Obama and other leaders have already conceded that Copenhagen willnot produce a full schedule of legally binding emissions targets forall the world’s countries, a successor to the Kyoto protocol thatexpires in 2012. But the president has recently met the leaders of thetwo big countries most able, alongside America, to break the rich-poordeadlock that has made many climate-watchers worry about the prospectof any deal at all. An the propects of some sort of agreement grew onThursday. Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister, said that he would alsogo to Copenhagen at the same time that China announced that it wouldtake to the meeting a commitment to cut the amount of carbon dioxideemitted for each unit of GDP by up to 45% by 2020, compared to 2005levels. However China's rapid pace of economic growth means that itsoverall carbon emissions will continue to grow for some years.

    奥巴马和其他领导人已承认，哥本哈根不会产生一份对所有国法律约束力的完整减排指标，以作为《京都议定书》2012年到期后的接替。富国与穷国之间的僵局让很多气候观察员对达成任何协议的前景担忧，但奥巴马日前已与最能打破僵局的两大国（与美国一道）的领导人会晤。本周四，仿佛又增加了一个支持因素——中国总理温家宝表示他也将在同一时间出席哥本哈根会议，中国宣布其也将对会议作出一份承诺——到2020年，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降45%。但是中国经济快速增长的步伐意味着它的碳排放总量将继续增长数年。

But the annoucement boosts the chance of some sort of deal atCopenhagen beyond measure agreed on Mr Obama's recent trip to Asia. Heand the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, announced joint research projectson clean coal, electric cars and other bits of greenery. A similarpackage was announced when Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister,visited Washington, DC, this week (and enjoyed an elaborate statedinner, Mr Obama’s first).

    然而中国的声明增大了哥本哈根峰会达成某种协议的可能性，而且比奥巴马最近的亚洲之行所承诺的更进一步。他和中国国家主席胡锦涛宣布了在清洁煤、电动车及其它方面的温室合作研究项目。本周，类似合作研究项目也在印度曼莫汉辛格总理（享受到了奥巴马第一次为其精心准备的国宴）访问华盛顿时作了公布

This has given negotiators something to talk about besides thelong-running conflict over who should cut emissions by how much. Andthough Mr Obama’s visit to Denmark is no guarantee of success, hisabsence from the conference would have ensured a wary and grouchy moodfrom other countries. Five cabinet secretaries will also be going toCopenhagen, to make their pitch for co-operation on farming, greenjobs, research and the like.

   这使判谈代表们除了谁才应该减排、谁应该减排多少这些长期争论不休的问题外，有了一些有意义的谈判内容。虽然奥巴马来到丹麦并非是会议成功的保证，但他的缺席一定会令其它国家谨小慎微、心存抱怨。五名内阁部长也将前往哥本哈根，兜售他们关于农业、绿色工程、科学研究等诸如此类领域的合作。

As for the low target of 17% cuts from 2005 levels (against EuropeanUnion promises of 20% or 30% on 1990 ones), Michael Levi of the Councilon Foreign Relations in New York argues that 2020 is the wrong year tofocus on. The target of an 83% reduction by 2050 is much moreimportant; even a stronger 2020 target, successfully met, would onlymake a difference of a few parts per million of carbon dioxide in theatmosphere. (The mainstream view is that carbon dioxide concentrationsmust stabilise at 450 parts per million or below to avoid dangerousclimate change.)

   至于在2005年基础上减排17%的目标（与欧盟在1990年的基础上减排20％或30％相对应）问题，美国对外关系委员会的迈克尔•列维在纽约坚持认为，人们把关注点着力于2020年的减排指标是没有意义的。2050年83％的减排目标重要得多了；即使2020年的减排比例更高一些，而且也圆满完成了，大气中二氧化碳含量也仅仅产生微不足道的百万分之几的浓度变化。（主流观点是，二氧化碳浓度必须稳定在百万分之450或以下，才能避免气候变化的危险）

This looks generous: as Lord Stern, a British economist, has noted, aweak 2020 target may make ambitious 2050 targets harder to hit. But themere presence of guaranteed and falling caps on carbon would surelyhave some effect on investment in the sort of technology that mightmake reductions cheaper. Businesses have continually begged for a clearand consistent future legal regime, rather than Mr Obama’sbackupoption: direct regulation of carbon emissions by theEnvironmental Protection Agency.

   这种观点看起来通情达理，但就像英国经济学家斯特恩勋爵所指出的那样，2020年减排指标[设定]低了可能使雄心勃勃的2050年目标难以实现。而且，仅仅作作保证并在碳排放上降低指标，肯定会对可以使减排更廉价的科技投入产生某些影响。企业不断要求，宁可制定一套清晰明了和始终如一的法律制度，也不要奥巴马的后备选择——由环境保护局直接制定碳排放规章。

By committing early to a target of 17%, Mr Obama has avoided another pitfall: promising more than Congress looks ready to deliver. TheSenate cap-and-trade bill has promised 20% reductions, but it will havea hard road to reach 60 of 100 votes (enough to beat a Republicanfilibuster). And any climate treaty has an even higher hurdle to clear:67 votes to ratify. That will be near-impossible if Mr Obama cannotcharm out of his new friends, the leaders of China and India,measurable plans to limit, if not cut, their own carbon emissions. Andif Mr Obama fails to deliver what he has signed up to, the damage to America’s reputation, and his presidency, will be incalculable.

   通过提早作出17％的减排目标承诺，奥巴马避免了另一个陷阱：多于美国众议院似乎准备实践的承诺。参议院限排及交易法案已承诺减排20％，但欲达到能通过该法案的60票（足以击败共和党的阻挠）将要走一段艰难的路程。而且任何气候条约都有更高的障碍需要清除：得67票批准。如果奥巴马不能诱使他的两个新朋友——中印领导人即使不答应减排，也要制定一个重大限排计划的话，那么想在参议院获得67票的通过票数就是几乎不可能的。如果奥巴马未能兑现由他签署的承诺，那么对美国声誉损害及他的总统任期的影响都将是不可估量的。

好。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

虽然前景不明朗，承诺做点事情总是好的，起码可以给很多人希望。

虽然前景不明朗，承诺做点事情总是好的，起码可以给很多人希望。
袜子 发表于 2009-11-29 12:02

                               
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政客当然要承诺，不承诺的做不成政客

丹麦如果再垃圾分类作的好点就行了